When it comes to winning your hockey pool, rebound control is far more important than the first shot.  Anyone can pick a good player out of the top tier, but it’s finding those hidden gems that separates the winners from the losers.

One thing you can count on every year is that your opponents will overwhelmingly favour last year’s scoring leaders in the early rounds of the draft. While it’s tempting to simply take the next best player from that list, be careful not to make the foolish assumption that this season will be just like the last.  It won’t be.

Last year the league’s top five were Henrik Sedin, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Nicholas Backstrom and Steven Stamkos.

Anyone who told you they expected Stamkos to make this list is lying to you, and chances are he didn’t go in the first round in your league. But with rising sophomore John Tavares on your radar, will he have a similar breakout in his second season, or will he fall back before moving forward?  Does a player like Tavares merit a first round selection?

In 2008-2009, the top five scorers were Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Pavel Datsyuk, and Zach Parise, Parise being the surprise name, making the jump from 65 to 94 points – a 29-point swing.

Did your league see Parise go in the first round of the 2008 draft?  Doubtful.

There is no science to picking these hidden gems, and when the self professed experts get a few right, they know they’ll get just as many wrong. Oddly enough, they don’t talk about those quite as much.  With this in mind here are a few breakout (or spring back) candidates for 2010-2011.

Marc Savard – There is no player that seems to handle adversity as well as Savard.  Why Boston would want to trade him is inconceivable.  Year after year, he puts up big points.  The only thing that can slow him down is injury and there’s no reason to believe his troubles last year will persist.

Pavel Datsyuk – He’s been a consistent 90-point guy for most of his career and only injuries to just about every available linemate pushed him down to the 70-point range.  With a healthy Red Wings lineup, expect a spring-back for Datsyuk.

Henrik Zetterberg – See above.

Vincent Lecavalier – There will be some groans here, but trust me: if you aren’t willing to take a risk or two you can’t win.  This is what we call a low risk investment because worst case scenario he still gets you 70 points.  But with some luck, and a little confidence, he can still hit 100.

Mike Richards – He was stunning last year for a guy coming off of two shoulder surgeries.  A little more time to properly heal puts the pump back into his shot.  Combine that with his desire and you’ll get a return to 75 or 80 points.

Andy McDonald – The victim of a complete meltdown by the youth core in St. Louis, McDonald’s linemates just couldn’t help him out last year.  If you watched him closely you’d have seen he’s lost none of his jump and was dangerous, but snake-bitten and very much alone.  That should change this year.

Jason Spezza – With some scoring depth in Ottawa Spezza will return to flirt with 90 points again as the true star of the team steps up big time.  The only thing that can derail him is a lack of confidence that comes with fans booing him early.  A hot start will prevent that.

Ales Hemsky – Hemsky could crack 100 points in 2010-2011. Bold prediction, maybe, but a season essentially lost to injury will be replaced by one with far more passing options.  And he’s been a good center or a scoring winger away from hitting triple digits for years.

Brad Boyes – Boyes had been a point-a-game guy for the past few years before the wheels fall off last year.  It’s a statistical anomaly, and it won’t happen again as he springs back to 70 to 75 points.

Simon Gagne – Just got a guarantee of a first class center, and that means he should bounce back in a big way.  Only injuries can hold him back and he’s had his share of bad luck in that department.

Shawn Horcoff – May not be the number one center the Oilers are looking for, but he plays a smart game and his plummet from 53 to 36 points in a single season is not the beginning of the end, but an absence of talented wingers.  The return of Hemsky and the arrival of Eberle should fix that in Edmonton.

Jarome Iginla – Struggled with the rest of the Flames last year, but with the right linemates he springs back to 75 points at least.  He’s still too good and too proud to have another season like the last one.

These 12 players are hardly long-shots.  They have, however, planted seeds of doubt for those at the fantasy draft table.  Those seeds if planted on your team could prove bountiful.  They are the middle round guys who have the ability to be game changers.